SALT LAKE CITY — Utah’s demographic and economic future will be marked by significant growth and change. Long-term planning projections released today by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute indicate the state’s population will increase from nearly 3.6 million residents to 5.6 million, an increase of 2 million people, or the approximate size of Idaho today. The projections release follows a 15-month development process and review by several state agencies and stakeholders.

“Utah’s growth over the next 40 years is characterized by record levels of net in-migration, declining natural change (births minus deaths), an aging population, and continuing urbanization,” said Mallory Bateman, director of demographic research at the Gardner Institute. “The Utah economy plays a vital role, with the health care, professional services, finance, and construction industries leading growth through 2065. By the end of the planning horizon, Utah’s population will be larger, older, and more urban, with a service-oriented economy that remains well-diversified.”

Key findings from the projections include the following:

Population grows – Utah’s history of population growth and change will continue with nearly 3.6 million residents in 2025 increasing to 5.6 million in 2065.

Fastest Growing Counties – Wasatch County leads the state in the average annual rate of population change over the next four decades (1.9%), with Utah (1.7%), Washington (1.5%), Tooele (1.5%), Morgan (1.5%), and Iron (1.4%), following closely behind.

Employment increases – Continued employment growth and industry diversification result in the addition of 1.2 million jobs over the projection horizon. Industries with the largest increases are health care and social assistance; professional, scientific, and technical services; and finance

and insurance.

Movers matter – Except for eight years in the 2030s, net migration drives population growth statewide. Economic growth, combined with declining fertility and an aging population, drive this trend.

Household growth – Statewide, projected population growth coincides with substantial household growth, from 1.2 million in 2025 to 2.3 million in 2065.

Smaller household sizes – Decreasing household sizes driven by an aging population will continue, with a typical Utah household decreasing from nearly 3.0 people in 2025 to 2.3 in 2065.

Aging continues – Utah’s median age increases from 32.8 in 2025 to 45.3 in 2065, the result of both declining fertility rates and an aging population. The population age 65 and over will increase from one-in-eight residents to nearly one-in-four Utahns by 2065, while the number of centenarians (Utahns over the age of 100) will increase from an estimated 385 in 2025, to approximately 12,500 in 2065.

Salt Lake and Utah counties – In 2065, Salt Lake County remains the most populated county (1.6 million), with Utah County closely trailing at 1.5 million.

Employment growth – Salt Lake County remains the state’s economic center, adding approximately 600,000 new jobs over the projection horizon.

The projections released today are the state’s official long-term planning projections. The full projections summary is now available online.

ABOUT THE KEM C. GARDNER POLICY INSTITUTE

The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute serves Utah by preparing economic, demographic, and public policy research that helps the state prosper. We are Utah’s demographic experts, leaders on the Utah economy, and specialists on public policy and survey research. We are an honest broker of INFORMED RESEARCH, which guides INFORMED DISCUSSIONS, and leads to INFORMED DECISIONS. For more information, please visit gardner.utah.edu or call 801-587-3717.

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