SALT LAKE CITY — Utah’s below replacement fertility rate is not the norm for most counties in the state according to a new report from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. The research brief, a first-of-its-kind from the Gardner Institute, analyzes Utah’s past and present county fertility rates. Most county fertility rates remain above replacement fertility of 2.1, but approximately two-thirds of Utah’s counties experienced significant declines. Regional variations are present, with higher fertility rates in Central Utah and the Uinta Basin, and lower fertility rates in the most populated counties and the Wasatch Back.
“Utah’s fertility landscape is undergoing a significant transformation,” said Emily Harris, senior demographer Gardner Institute and lead author of the report. “While most counties still maintain fertility rates above the replacement level, the statewide decline is pronounced, driven by a noticeable postponement of childbearing to later ages. Our analysis highlights the diverse experiences across Utah’s counties, underscoring that fertility trends are complex and influenced by a variety of factors.”
Key findings from the research include the following:
County-Level Variation – In 2023, TFRs across Utah’s counties range from a high of 2.8 in Wayne County to a low of 1.6 in Salt Lake County. Approximately two-thirds of counties still maintain TFRs above the replacement level of 2.1.
Significant Decreases – The largest declines in TFR over the past decade (2013-2023) occurred in Duchesne, Salt Lake, Morgan, and Iron counties.
Isolated Increases – Wayne, Piute, and Daggett counties experienced increases in TFR, often influenced by small population sizes where a handful of births can disproportionately impact rates.
Shifting Peak Childbearing Age – Peak childbearing ages in the majority of Utah’s 29 counties now falls in the 25-29 age group, reflecting a shift from the previous peak in the 20-24 age group. Cache, Summit, and Wasatch counties show a later peak in the 30-34 age group.
Population Growth & Fertility – TFR increase does not always result in overall population growth. Counties experiencing high population growth generally had larger TFR declines, while counties with TFR increases often had population decline or very low growth.
The full research brief is now available online.
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